Top-10 rejected images in the MNIST testing set found by two methods.

We deal with the selective classification problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original $m$-class classification problem to (m+1)-class where the (m+1)-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to disconfidence. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. Minimizing this loss function corresponds naturally to maximizing the return of a horse race, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the disconfidence of prediction in an end-to-end fashion. In comparison with previous methods, our method requires almost no modification to the model inference algorithm or model architecture. Experiments show that our method can identify uncertainty in data points, and achieves strong results on SVHN and CIFAR10 at various coverages of the data.

Top-10 rejected images in the MNIST testing set found by two methods.

We deal with the selective classification problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original m -class classification problem to (m 1)-class where the (m 1)-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to disconfidence. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. Minimizing this loss function corresponds naturally to maximizing the return of a horse race, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the disconfidence of prediction in an end-to-end fashion.

We deal with the selective classification problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original m -class classification problem to (m 1)-class where the (m 1)-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to disconfidence. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. Minimizing this loss function corresponds naturally to maximizing the return of a horse race, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the disconfidence of prediction in an end-to-end fashion.

The task we consider is portfolio construction in a speculative market, a fundamental problem in modern finance. While various empirical works now exist to explore deep learning in finance, the theory side is almost non-existent. In this work, we focus on developing a theoretical framework for understanding the use of data augmentation for deep-learning-based approaches to quantitative finance. The proposed theory clarifies the role and necessity of data augmentation for finance; moreover, our theory implies that a simple algorithm of injecting a random noise of strength $\sqrt{|r_{t-1}|}$ to the observed return $r_{t}$ is better than not injecting any noise and a few other financially irrelevant data augmentation techniques.

When applying eigenvalue decomposition on the quadratic term matrix in a type of linear equally constrained quadratic programming (EQP), there exists a linear mapping to project optimal solutions between the new EQP formulation where $Q$ is diagonalized and the original formulation. Although such a mapping requires a particular type of equality constraints, it is generalizable to some real problems such as efficient frontier for portfolio allocation and classification of Least Square Support Vector Machines (LSSVM). The established mapping could be potentially useful to explore optimal solutions in subspace, but it is not very clear to the author. This work was inspired by similar work proved on unconstrained formulation discussed earlier in \cite{Tan}, but its current proof is much improved and generalized. To the author's knowledge, very few similar discussion appears in literature.

We deal with the selective classification problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original $m$-class classification problem to (m 1)-class where the (m 1)-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to disconfidence. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. Minimizing this loss function corresponds naturally to maximizing the return of a horse race, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the disconfidence of prediction in an end-to-end fashion.

We deal with the \textit{selective classification} problem (supervised-learning problem with a rejection option), where we want to achieve the best performance at a certain level of coverage of the data. We transform the original $m$-class classification problem to $(m+1)$-class where the $(m+1)$-th class represents the model abstaining from making a prediction due to uncertainty. Inspired by portfolio theory, we propose a loss function for the selective classification problem based on the doubling rate of gambling. We show that minimizing this loss function has a natural interpretation as maximizing the return of a \textit{horse race}, where a player aims to balance between betting on an outcome (making a prediction) when confident and reserving one's winnings (abstaining) when not confident. This loss function allows us to train neural networks and characterize the uncertainty of prediction in an end-to-end fashion. In comparison with previous methods, our method requires almost no modification to the model inference algorithm or neural architecture. Experimentally, we show that our method can identify both uncertain and outlier data points, and achieves strong results on SVHN and CIFAR10 at various coverages of the data.

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a hypothesis about investment theory that Harry Markowitz published in 1952. Since that time, Markowitz's theory has been one of the most influential forces in finance for both academics and practitioners. Markowitz asserted that risk-averse investors could construct portfolios of assets that maximize return for a given level of risk. The application of MPT allows investors to create an optimal portfolio of assets for any particular level of risk. Depending on the individual's risk tolerance, they should invest in the return-maximizing set of assets.